New Zealand’s housing market crashes to 12-year low

Advertisement

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has released its housing market results for November, with sales crashing to a 12-year low, inventory soaring and house prices down 13.7% year-on-year.

The number of residential property sales across New Zealand decreased annually by 36.1%, from 8,644 in November 2021 to 5,525 in November 2022.

It was the lowest sales volumes for the month of November since 2010.

Sales have fallen especially hard in Auckland, down 43.5% year-on-year:

Advertisement
New Zealand house sales

While sales have collapsed to a 12-year low, the number of homes listed for sale at the end of November was up a whopping 48% year-on-year.

Reflecting the poor buyer demand and swelling supply on market, the REINZ’s House Price Index (HPI), which takes into account changes in the mix of properties sold each month, declined by 1.4% in November to be down 13.7% from the peak recorded a year earlier:

Advertisement
New Zealand house price index

Auckland’s HPI fell more sharply, down 18.4% year-on-year.

Commenting on the results, REINZ CEO Jen Baird noted that the Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes have delivered “more hesitancy” in the real estate market.

“In a recent survey of REINZ membership, conducted with economist Tony Alexander, real estate professionals reported the top concerns of buyers in the market are high interest rates, access to finance and purchasing and seeing prices soften. Add to these concerns of recession, global economic and geo-political uncertainty”. 

Advertisement

“Buyers are again weighing up the likely impact on mortgage rates with current downward pressure on property prices. Those thinking of selling are again looking at the market and asking, ‘Is this the right time?”, Baird said.

With the Reserve Bank forecasting a peak official cash rate of 5.5% next year, New Zealand’s housing market will remain stuck in quicksand.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.