History is going to remember Scott Morrison well. Sure, he’s a “psycho”, pathological liar, and messianic god boy but all of these things will be forgotten in the long run.
What will be remembered is this. Clive Hamilton:
When speaking with analysts and journalists in Europe, I’m surprised to find that Australia is no longer seen as a bit player in the Indo-Pacific region but as a substantial power. They speak of the high regard in Europe for our resolve and express a degree of confidence in our role and abilities that is, frankly, disconcerting.
This turn in international perceptions of Australia’s strategic importance has occurred in the past four to five years and is due solely to the way we have resisted China’s intimidation and coercion without backing down. The way Australia is viewed abroad stands in vivid contrast to the way Australians have seen their country, that is, as a small to middling power, blessed by our distance from conflict zones, trying to negotiate our way through turbulent waters over which we have no control and relying on a big brother to protect us.
It was Morrison that deployed Malcolm Turnbull’s domestic influence pushback aimed at China. It was Morrison that resisted the resulting trade war. It was Morrison that goaded Beijing into a series of strategic blunders including the 14 conditions to end democracy. It was Morrison that swung the attitude of the G7. It was Morrison that created AUKUS and embedded the Quad.
This is an extraordinary set of foreign policy achievements in just three years and should be recognised for what it is: an immense strategic pivot managed with superb tactics and foresight.
That Kevin Rudd and Labor spend so much energy on mischaracterising this as “megaphone diplomacy” is, at best, jealousy, and probably much worse.
Sure, some of it was instinct and good luck. Some was even ineptitude! But, as they say in golf, there are no pictures on the scorecard. If you thin a hole-in-one then who cares.
ScoMo has earned some serious credibility on China issues and we should listen when he speaks:
Scott Morrison says military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan would deliver “mutually assured destruction” but would devastate the Chinese economy more than the west and lead to an almost total collapse of the country.
The former prime minister also doubted China’s capability to wage war, saying its military strength on paper would be unlikely to be matched by performance in battle.
In an address to the conservative US think-tank the Hudson Institute on Wednesday, Mr Morrison said China’s apparent appetite for a détente with the west was a recognition that it was not ready to engage conflict and stood to lose more than the US.
…“Supply chains would seize up, financial markets would panic and potentially collapse and we know Chinese ports account for 40 per cent of shipping volume in the world’s top 100 ports.
“Six of the largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait. What would happen to the movement of capital?
“The potential impact of sanctions would be a devastation to the Chinese economy and more so than it would be in western countries.”
Magnificent observation and spot on in terms of how to avert any conflict over Taiwan. As well as the opposite of what Labor is trying to do with its “reset”.
This is the way to avoid war. Make it plain to China that if it goes ahead, it will be excised from the global economy and collapse, and the best way to do that is to make a refusal to re-engage economically a standing warning.
Yes, Morrison left gaps, some yawning, most notably in the Pacific and in defense capability (der Dutton) and to its credit, the Albanese Government has wasted no time filling them:
Canberra and Washington have committed to improving logistics at Australian airfields, including at bases in the country’s north, to support increased rotations of US bombers and fighter aircraft.
Japan will also be invited to play an increased role in force posture initiatives in Australia.
Details of the need for more ‘agile’ logistics for US forces are contained in a statement released after today’s AUSMIN ministerial talks in Washington between an Australian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
The US also reaffirmed its support for Australia’s guided weapons and explosive ordnance enterprise, which is intended to quickly improve the nation’s ability to deter a more powerful aggressor and provide the ability to maintain supplies in a crisis.
The project’s goal is to maintain, repair and overhaul more priority munitions in Australia to improve stocks. That would involve robust technology and capability collaboration being undertaken across the alliance. It was crucial to combine strengths to effectively respond to the tougher strategic environment, the joint communiqué said.
The principals committed to strengthening efforts to better streamline and facilitate technology transfers and information sharing, including under the Australia–US Defence Trade Cooperation Treaty. They also committed to work closely on the future E-7A Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft, including through the training of US Air Force personnel by the Royal Australian Air Force in Australia, and to increase space cooperation and space domain awareness and strengthen assured access to space through future bilateral space arrangements.
Along with these measures would come enhanced efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change and to deal with its strategic consequences.
But the first man through the wall is usually shot and Morrison did it anyway.
Hope is kindled.
