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An interesting debate at Bloomie today:
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender, reckons policy makers in Sydney are near the peak of their tightening cycle, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees interest-rate hikes persisting into 2023.
The diverging views over the terminal cash rate — CBA has one more hike next week to 3.1% while Goldman predicts five more to 4.1% in May — highlight contrasting assessments of the capacity of the A$9.7 trillion ($6.5 trillion) housing market to weather the sharpest tightening cycle since 1994.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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