Extreme rental growth predicted for 2023

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CoreLogic’s November housing market report showed that asking rents are soaring at double-digit rates across most Australian capital city markets:

Australian rents

Knight Frank’s Outlook Report 2023 forecasts that residential property markets are “experiencing severe supply shortages and rapid rental growth is expected to continue, with double-digit growth expected in 2023 for 11 of the 14 major residential markets across Australia”:

Rental growth forecast

Knight Frank: Extreme rental growth forecast for 2023 as house prices fall.

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Knight Frank adds that “the supply crunch has come for a number of reasons. Firstly, sustained population growth, up by 4,6% over the past five years, has continued to add to demand and been augmented by a gradual rise in the proportion of households renting. Secondly, new dwelling construction has fallen by 17.8% over the past five years”.

“Severe weather events have also taken homes offline and removed from rental pools across the country”, according to Knight Frank.

“The combined impact of these forces has been to severely restrict the supply of rental accommodation and place significant upward pressure on rents”.

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Knight Frank believes the “supply shortage will be difficult to resolve, and rental displacement is likely to intensify over the coming years as Australia once more welcomes permanent migration, with over 90% of the 195,000 places going to skilled migrants”.

Already, net international student arrivals have rebounded to record levels, which suggests Australia’s net overseas migration will hit all-time high levels in 2023:

Net student visa arrivals
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The Albanese Government has also committed to eliminating the contrived “one million visa backlog” as soon as possible.

The inevitable result of Labor’s ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration policy will be extreme rental shortages, soaring rents, and rising homelessness.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.