New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is facing an uphill battle for re-election next year, based on the latest opinion polls.
The December 1News Kantar Public poll has Ardern’s Labour Party dropping 1% to a 33% primary vote, with the opposition National Party climbing to 38%:
Support for minor parties has also increased, with ACT up to 11% and New Zealand First rising to 4%, whereas Labour’s coalition partner the Greens were steady at 9%.
The result puts Ardern’s Labour Government at risk of losing its majority at next year’s election with the Nationals and ACT now projected to secure 64 MPs, three more than the 61 required.
To make matters worse, support for Jacinda Ardern has fallen to 29%, which is her worst approval rating since her coming into office in 2017.
Separate polling from Roy Morgan Research shows the majority of New Zealanders (55%) believe the country is going in the ‘wrong direction’. Labour’s primary vote has also plunged to a record low 25.5%, while National’s has risen to 39.0%:
The National / ACT / Maori coalition is also leading Labour /Greens by 54.0% to 37.5%:
Government confidence has collapsed to a record low, while consumer confidence is at recessionary levels:
New Zealand’s election is scheduled for late 2023 and by that stage house prices will have collapsed, mortgage holders will be struggling to meet mortgage repayments, and the economy is projected by the Reserve Bank to be in recession.
These are dastardly circumstances to be heading into an election and it will take a minor miracle for Jacinda Ardern to secure a third term.
