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Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank with the note:
Though the US economy has remained relatively resilient in the face of elevated inflation so far, we see gathering storm clouds pointing to a mild recession in the middle of 2023. This would result in growth slowing from 1.9% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023 before a modest recovery to 1.3% in 2024.
An unflagging consumer has helped to drive growth through Q322, supported by healthy household balance sheets and a substantial pile of accumulated savings.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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