Available rentals halve as immigration roars back

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November’s rental vacancy data from Domain shows vacancy rates nationally holding at a record low 0.8%, down nearly half from 1.5% in November 2021:

November rental vacancy rates

There were 20,320 vacant rentals in November, which was down 46.6% compared to the same period a year earlier.

Commenting on the result, Domain’s chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, noted that we “have a landlord’s market across Australia and in every capital city”, and warned that vacancies could fall further next year as migration picks up and more international students arrive.

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And therein lies the problem. Net student arrivals have already soared to record levels, which has driven net visa arrivals to pre-pandemic levels:

Net visa arrivals

Immigration Minister Andrew Giles last month boasted that the government will have reduced Australia’s ‘visa backlog’ by nearly 400,000 by the end of this year and intends to clear the remaining 600,000 strong backlog as soon as possible.

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The inevitable result will be that Australia will experience an unprecedented level of immigration next year amid the tightest rental market in history.

Where are these hundreds of thousands of new migrant renters supposed to live?

The lack of planning and foresight surrounding Australia’s immigration policy never ceases to amaze.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.