Australia’s rental market facing “extreme tightness” in 2023

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SQM Research has released its final rental vacancy report for 2022, with the nation’s vacancy rate remaining zipped tight at just 1.0% in November, down from 1.8% a year earlier:

SQM rental vacancies

SQM’s asking rents series also recorded extreme 25.1% annual rental growth at the national capital city level.

Commenting on the result, SQM Research Managing Director Louis Christopher noted that “the rental market across our capital cities remains very much in favour of landlords”. Christopher also warned that “the immediate outlook is ongoing extreme tightness in the rental market” and that “early 2023 could be a nightmare for would be tenants”.

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Separate data from Corelogic shows a vacancy rate of just 1.0% in November, down from 2.1% a year earlier, with annual national rental growth tracking at 10.2%:

CoreLogic rental snapshot

It is hard to see how the rental situation will improve in 2023 given annual immigration has already returned to its manic pre-pandemic level, and the Albanese Government has committed to the biggest immigration program in this nation’s history.

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Australian net immigration

Where will the hundreds of thousands of migrants expected to pour into Australia live when there is already a dangerous shortage of rental accommodation for the existing population? In tents?

The only outcome from the Albanese Government’s record immigration drive is a tightening rental market, soaring rents, and increasing homelessness.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.