2023 Outlook: The US Recession Year

Deutsche Bank Research has released a report entitled “2023 Outlook: The US Recession Year”, which contains a bunch of interesting charts showing why the US economy will plunge into recession.

First, Deutsche notes that “this has been the most aggressive hiking cycle since the 1980s”:

“Consensus (62%) is now expecting a (mostly mild) US recession”. But “given that economists’ models rarely predict a recession this speaks volumes about the direction of travel”:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.