Victoria facing potential minority government

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll showed that the ALP has retained a large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria; although the lead has narrowed to 7%:

The two-party preferred results of this poll are almost identical to the results from the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP (57.3%) defeated the L-NP (42.7%).

However, comparing the primary voting results from this Snap SMS Poll to the 2018 Victorian Election shows a large move to minor parties and independents – the same thing Roy Morgan saw at this year’s Federal Election.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.