Societe General with some analysis of various FCIs. My take is similar but the conclusion is not no recession, it is tighter conditions are coming before the recession gets here.
US financial conditions are tighter, but are they tight?
Much of the widespread expectations of a US recession appear to be based on the monetary policy tightening already implemented by the Fed and expectations of further tightening ahead. And that is perfectly reasonable, given that the Fed funds rate has risen from effectively zero to 3.9% now, and further increases to eventually around 5% are expected. Monetary policy in the US has unquestionably become a lot tighter. But how tight is it?
