“No end in sight” for Australia’s rental crisis

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Earlier this week I presented the Department of Home Affair’s latest temporary visa data, which showed that the number of temporary visa holders in Australia swelled to 2,146,000 over the September quarter, up 503,000 year-on-year:

Temporary visas on issue

Moreover, the number of temporary visa holders were now just a fraction below the 2018 peak.

In the wake of the findings, buyers agency, Buyers Buyers, published a media release warning that the surge in temporary migration will “add substantially to the rental crisis”, and means “there is no end in sight for the rental crisis” given immigration “is only likely to gather pace in 2023”.

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Temporary entrants

Moreover, the immigration-fueled rental demand is likely to hit inner Sydney and Melbourne the hardest, given “most new arrivals into Australia are renters, and mostly they arrive in the heart of Sydney and Melbourne”.

This is a disaster in the making. Australia’s rental market is already the tightest in record, with rental listings at record lows (see below CoreLogic chart), and Melbourne and Sydney experiencing the steepest annual decline in the number of listings.

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Rental listings

CoreLogic: Change in rental listings in the year to October 2022.

Accordingly, rental vacancy rates are at record lows, with rents rising at double-digit rates nationally:

Rental snapshot

CoreLogic rental snapshot: October 2022.

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Australia’s renters are already suffering from a chronic shortage of rental accommodation and soaring rental costs.

Now the Albanese Government has opened the immigration floodgates and expects nearly one million net overseas migrants to arrive over the next four years:

Net overseas migration

Federal Budget: Nearly one million net overseas migrants to arrive over next four years.

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The inevitable result will be a worsening of the rental crisis already afflicting Australia, alongside a sharp increase in over-crowding and homelessness.

With friends like the Albanese Government, Australia’s renters sure don’t need enemies.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.