The NAB business survey used to be a terrific macroeconomic forecasting tool. No longer.
It’s been obvious for some time that the economy is slowing but no says the NAB!
It’s been obvious all along that wages are weak but yippeeki yay mofo says the NAB!
It is interesting to speculate on why the survey has deteriorated so badly.
I used to think it was part of the post-GFC economic distortions, but I’m wondering more these days if it isn’t a reflection of the general decline in business values.
Business used to be thought of as an interest group and subordinate to public interest markets. These days, it is fed a diet of self-aggrandising uppers in “businessomics” press and policy circles. Getting high on its own supply, as it were.
Is it any wonder, then, that measures like surveyed labour costs can blow out with perception much further than they do in reality? Wages growth is under 3% yet “business” sees it at 13%!
If you’re told you’re god’s gift for long enough then is it any wonder that you begin to think it’s OK to make up your own rules?
Thanks AFR!
