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The Forward View from NAB Group Economics forecasts that Australia’s real GDP growth will “slow to below 1.0% over the next two years. This includes some very soft quarterly growth in the back end of 2023 and is well below trend growth of around 2.25-2.5%”.
NAB: Australian GDP growth to collapse in 2023 and 2024.
This forecast is based on an expected peak in the official cash rate of 3.60% by March 2023, “with the RBA holding rates at that level until early 2024”.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.