Monthly inflation indicator comes in soft

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ monthly inflation indicator has come in much softer than expected, recording 6.9% year-on-year growth in October (versus expected 7.4%):

Annual CPI

The trimmed mean measure is 5.3% for October, also significantly lower than the expected 5.7% and 0.1% below September’s 5.3%.

The most significant price rises were Housing (+10.5%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+8.9%) and Transport (+7.4%).

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CPI breakdown

On the face of it, the result supports the view that inflation will peak in Q4 and lessens the pressure for the Reserve Bank to hike rates more aggressively.

That said, rents will soar from here as will energy prices if the Albanese Government does not come up with a thorough solution.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.