Michael Hartnett may be wrong for once

Sunday 13 November 2022

Michael Hartnett at BofA with his latest.

Tale of the Tape: YTD winners…energy stocks 29% (Chart3), Brazil 20%, US$ 16%; losers…IG-21%, EM bonds-24%, REITs -31%, China -33%, Nasdaq -34%, UK gilts -35%, UST 30-year -37%, bitcoin-66%…all reversed bigly on Oct“peak CPI”.

The Price is Right: political gridlock + crypto credit event+pivot CPI + bears galore…what’s not to love; “pivot portfolio” (US$ dump, UST 30-year, JPY, XHB, SOX rip) surged on CPI; trading bulls need weekly close NYA >15350, LQD >$104, CCMP >11250for another 4-5% into YE; bears know liquidation events cause short squeezes (SPX 8% after BSC, 12% after LEH) + no lower yields, steeper curve…37-39k SPX chop into YE.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.