Macro Morning

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Wall Street finished the trading week in mixed fashion due to thin trading post the Thanksgiving holiday, with European shares also closing basically unchanged as the risk complex sailed through a quasi quiet week. The USD was still a bit weak against the major currencies on firming expectations of a slower pace of Fed rate rises but Euro did back off a little from its monthly high above the 1.04 level as the Australian dollar was also unable to advance, still shy of the recent weekly high. The action on bond markets was muted with 10 year Treasury yields hovering near the 3.7% level. The commodity complex saw a further drop in oil prices with Brent crude almost at a monthly low at the $83USD per barrel level while gold was relatively steady after playing catchup to the other undollars at the $1755USD per ounce level.

Looking at share markets in Asia from Friday’s session where mainland Chinese share markets did well after a shaky start, rallying into the close with the Shanghai Composite closing up 0.4% at 3101 points while the Hang Seng Index pulled back again, closingy down 0.5% to 17573 points. The daily chart is still showing a small slowdown after having gained nearly 4000 points since testing the 2008 lows with the possibility of a further retracement growing but so far defended well at the low moving average area. Its pretty obvious that daily momentum was getting ahead of itself before reaching the magical 20000 point level so watch this retracement to continue to test the recent daily lows below the 18000 point level:

Japanese stock markets also faltered into the end of the week with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.3% lower at 28283 points. As I suggested last week a further breakout was brewing here as overhead resistance at the 27500 level is now cleared but the lack of a clear lead from Wall Street may hamper further gains as we start another trading week. Price action is still above the trendline as daily momentum remains overbought with support holding nicely at the 27500 point level to continue this uptrend:

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