The Housing Industry Association (HIA) expects detached housing starts to total 123,370 in 2022, which is 17% lower than in 2021. This is forecast to fall to 114,530 housing commencements in 2023, while the HIA anticipates that 965,760 new homes will be built in the five years to 2028.
The HIA has warned that further increases in the official cash rate would result in its forecasts being downgraded and put the government’s target of one million new housing starts over five years at risk. The HIA notes that the full impact of rate rises in 2022 is unlikely to flow through to the residential construction sector until 2024:
“If [the Reserve Bank of Australia] continues to increase the cash rate in 2023, this forecast will be downgraded significantly,” the HIA said on Wednesday.
