Brisbane “epicentre” of Australia’s house price crash

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Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye has penned an article at LiveWire declaring Brisbane the new epicentre of Australia’s budding housing crash, which will likely be the largest in modern Australian history:

The epicentre of what will likely become the biggest housing crash in modern Aussie history has shifted from Sydney to Brisbane, where prices are currently falling at an incredible 20.3% annual rate…

Sydney dwelling values have fallen furthest, plunging a massive 11.1% since their peak in absolute terms… Sydney dwelling values continue to decline at a 17% annual rate based on the past three months of price moves.

The below charts tell the tale.

According to CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, Brisbane dwelling values have now fallen 7.8% from their June peak:

Brisbane dwelling values index

Brisbane dwelling values have crashed since mid-July.

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Brisbane’s quarterly decline is easily the fastest in the nation, down 5.7%. Thus, Brisbane has overtaken Sydney (-4.8% quarterly decline) as Australia’s sharpest falling housing market:

Quarterly value declines

Brisbane now leads nation’s house price decline.

Brisbane recorded the strongest house price growth over the pandemic, with values soaring an extraordinary 45% between February 2020 to its peak in June 2022.

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But what goes up must come down, with Brisbane now experiencing the sharpest price decline on the back of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s uber aggressive monetary tightening.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.