CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which measures home price changes across the five major capital city markets, declined by 0.23% in the week ended 24 November. This was the 29th consecutive weekly decline in dwelling values.
29th consecutive week of house price declines.
The decline in dwelling values was again led by Brisbane (-0.54%), Sydney (-0.24%) and Melbourne (-0.14%), whereas Adelaide and Perth were flat:
Brisbane leads weekly house price decline.
So far in November, dwelling values have fallen 0.80% at the 5-city aggregate level, with Brisbane (-1.48%), Sydney (-0.95%) and again leading the way and Adelaide (-0.21%) and Perth (-0.05%):
Brisbane values falling like a stone.
Over the quarter, dwelling values have declined by 3.7% at the 5-city aggregate level, with Brisbane (-5.6%) falling fastest, followed by Sydney (-4.7%) and Melbourne (-2.7%):
‘Big three’ capitals lead quarterly declines.
Finally, dwelling values have fallen 7.5% at the 5-city aggregate level, with Sydney down a hefty 11.2%, followed by solid declines across Brisbane (-7.9%) and Melbourne (-6.9%). Adelaide (-1.1%) and Perth (-0.9%) values, by contrast, are holding up well:
Sydney leads nationwide house price falls,
Commenting on the results, economist Stephen Koukoulas (‘The Kouk’) believes “house prices are close to the bottom of the cycle”, and is tipping the trough to be reached in the March quarter of 2023:
House prices are close to the bottom of the cycle with the low point likely in Q1 2023.
Next week updated nation-wide data which are likely to show prices down 7.3% according ot Corelogic; 5.5% according to Proptrack.
2022 has panned out much as expected.
My Two Minute Take pic.twitter.com/T6oatMBDZA— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) November 23, 2022
In his “Great Housing Debate” with Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye, the Kouk tipped that Australian dwelling values, as measured by the CoreLogic index, would only fall 7% by the middle of 2023 based on a 300 basis point increase in the official cash rate. He has since downgraded his forecast to a 10% peak-to-trough decline.
The Kouk should probably add another 5% to his decline-from-peak forecast given the existing interest rate hikes, let alone future increases, are yet to fully work their way through the system.
