Trade shock gut-punches weak Chinese economy

China’s latest lockdown reopening, this time around Chongqing, is going much like Shanghai before it. COVID still lurks:

Mobility is lifting:

Broader macro is OK:

Property sales popped out of lockdown but developers are still deep in the brown:

Bridges to nowhere are helping short term:

However, a generally weak economy is about to be punched in the face by an external shock that only just started:

As consumption hiccups in the US, the reverse bullship effect will take hold up the supply chain. There is much worse to come:

I expect the Chinese economy will be in recession by Q1, 2023.