The worst is still to come for Australia’s housing market


CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks price changes across the five major capital city markets, fell another 0.22% in the week ended 6 October – the 22nd consecutive weekly decline:

Weekly change in Australian dwelling values

22nd consecutive weekly decline.

The falls were concentrated in the three major markets of Sydney (-0.39%), Brisbane (-0.25%) and Melbourne (-0.14%), with Perth (+0.11%) bucking the downturn:

Weekly movements in house prices

‘Big three’ again lead price falls.


Dwelling values are now falling across every major capital city market on a quarterly basis, with Sydney still leading the way:

Quarterly dwelling value changes

Coast-to-coast quarterly falls.

Dwelling values at the 5-city aggregate level have now fallen 5.9% from their peak, with Sydney (-9.4%), Melbourne (-5.8%) and Brisbane (-4.9%) leading the decline, with Adelaide and Perth (-0.6%) only joining the correction recently:

House price decline from peak

Sydney leads house price falls.

NAB’s latest survey of property professionals showed that sentiment fell for a second consecutive quarter in September. NAB chief Alan Oster also tipped a peak-to-trough decline in Australian dwelling prices of 20% across the combined capital cities:

“Our outlook for property ­prices is broadly unchanged, with dwelling prices expected to decline by around 20 per cent across the capital cities from the peak in mid-2022”

“The declines are expected to be broadbased, but led by areas where affordability constraints are most binding. To date, Sydney and Melbourne have led the declines, but prices in other capital cities now appear to have also peaked – and the decline in Brisbane has ­accelerated.”


If true, this would mean that Australia’s housing correction is only around one-quarter the way though. It would also comprehensively demolish the record 11% price fall recorded between 2017 and 2019.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.