The Australian jobs market has clearly peaked, with the National Skills Commission’s (NSC) Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) – a monthly count of online job advertisements – falling across all states and territories in September.
In seasonally adjusted terms, job advertisements fell 5.9% (or 17,600) in September 2022 to stand at 282,600. Recruitment activity decreased across all states and territories during September 2022.
End of the great jobs boom.
However, job ads were still up 114,300 (67.9%) from their pre-COVID level.
Losses were broad-based with all jurisdiction reporting significant falls in job ads in September:
Broad-based falls in September.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s aggressive monetary tightening is obviously working to slow the economy and curtail jobs growth. Given there is a two to three-month lag between rate hikes and their impact on mortgage holders, most of the tightening to date has yet to be felt.
The major concern is that the aggressive monetary tightening will cause the economy to hit the brakes next year just as the Albanese Government floods the nation with migrants, in turn spiking unemployment.
This time next year, concerns around “skills shortages” will likely have vanished, replaced with concerns around low growth and unemployment.
