Macro Morning

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Dead cats everywhere as this recent stonking bounce has proven too risky to hold on to going into tonight’s US jobs report. Both sides of the Atlantic returned to the red after some scratch sessions and hesitation ruled here in Asia in yesterday’s session. The USD pushed higher against the major undollars with Euro completely rebuffed at the parity level while Pound Sterling reversed sharply. Ten year US Treasuries lifted again, pushing back up to the 3.8% level although interest rate expectations remain firm with 150bps in rises by January. Commodities were split with oil prices rising on the OPEC/Russia production cut agreements, with Brent crude pushed towards the $95USD per barrel level while gold remained above $1700USD per ounce level, currently at the $1711 level this morning.

Looking at share markets in Asia from yesterday’s session where Chinese share markets remain closed all week for National Day holidays while the Hang Seng Index put in a mild retracement, down 0.4% after being up nearly 6% in the previous session, finishing at 18012 points. The daily futures chart had been showing a very bearish mood for weeks here, with a bear market entrenched as daily momentum remains well deep into negative funk. While this recent move is interesting, it has yet to clear trailing ATR resistance and daily momentum remains negative:

Japanese stock markets were doing most of the heavy lifting yesterday, with the Nikkei 225 up nearly 0.8% to close at 27311 points. The daily chart shows price action wanting to push aside that dominant downtrend after the recent dead cat bounce at the 28000 point level with former support, now resistance at the 27000 point level now being threatened. Futures however are indicating a slight pullback today after the previous bullish engulfing candle with daily momentum setting up but not yet confirming a swing play here – another dead cat bounce on the way down?

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