Farewell CNY, it was a short time and not a good one
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Those still arguing that the renminbi is the future reserve currency of the world need to answer some questions.
- How is it going to be possible when the Chinese capital account is closed?
- How is it going to be possible when nobody wants to hold CCP-threatened assets?
- How is it going to be possible when China runs a mercantile model?
- How is it going to be possible when it accumulates reserves in other currencies in defence of that model?
- How is it going to be possible when economic transparency can disappear at the whim of the emperor?
- How is it compatible with a Taiwan war and China being excised from the DM demand upon which it relies so fully?
- How is it compatible with the end of growth and Japanification?
On the other hand:
- The US dollar is getting stronger, not weaker with the revitalisation of NATO.
- The US dollar is getting stronger, not weaker as it leads the world in MMT.
- US government debt is owed entirely in its own denomination.
As such, I am about as surprised by the following as I am when I hit a table with my fist and it hurts:
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It is my view that this CNY crash has every chance of reversing most if not all of its post-WTO-accession gains.
One thing is certain. As it falls, so will commodities (and just about everything else).
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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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