Cowardly Albo can’t guarantee gas to Japan

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Wasn’t Mad King’s gas deal supposed to guarantee gas supply to Asian customers? That’s what she said:

“I want to state very firmly and clearly that Australia will always be trusted and reliable trading partner, and a safe place to invest,” she said.

That was before she took off on a junket to WA gas platforms so she could not be questioned about the deal. Corruption at its worst.

Upon her return a week later, her claim of a “trusted and reliable partner” had descended into gas chaos as various stakeholders realised what a terrible deal she had struck.

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Mad King then also undermined her own “trusted and reliable” claptrap:

Is it any wonder that Japan has escalated its concerns over supply reliability to Albo himself:

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will seek a personal assurance from Anthony Albanese over the reliability of gas exports to Japan amid concerns in Tokyo of rising “energy nationalism” in Australia.

Mr Kishida and Mr Albanese, who will meet in Perth on Saturday during a whistle-stop visit by the Japanese leader, will also significantly upgrade the security relationship between the two countries.

This will pave the way for greater intelligence sharing, military cooperation and what Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, said would be other “unprecedented measures”.

Speaking to The Australian Financial Review ahead of Mr Kishida’s visit, Mr Yamagami said the recent Queensland budget decision to impose hefty royalties on coal, and the unrest inside the federal government over the domestic supply and price of gas, including whether there should be market interference, had created anxiety in Tokyo over sovereign risk.

…“This meeting is crucial in terms of ensuring that Australia will remain a trusted, reliable supplier of energy,” he said.

“Japan will continue to be willing to invest and trade with Australia. This is a two-way street, this partnership, but energy security is certainly high in the mind of Prime Minister Kishida.

“We have to be careful about so-called resources nationalism and we have to make sure this is a win-win situation, a mutually beneficial relationship.

“Japanese business have invested a lot in Australia believing there is no significant sovereign risk. If Australia starts behaving like other countries in some other regions, I’m sure there will be a cry coming from Japanese.”

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All good points and I applaud the security deal. But I am sure that Mr Kishida will understand that there is no Japanese energy security of supply without Australian security of supply.

There are several obvious ways to deliver it:

  • Apply an export levy benchmarked to pre-Ukraine prices that drops domestic prices, captures the windfall fall profit gains for Australia, and won’t impact export volumes.
  • Install domestic reservation with a $7Gj price cap and guarantee all non-Chinese supply contracts. China takes 71% of the east coast gas that is causing all of the problems and can afford to lose some of it. It has been on-selling heaps of it this year to Europe at huge mark-ups anyway:
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Treasurer Jim “Chicken” Chalmers made another appearance yesterday to declare that the government has “more work to do” on the gas market and after the Budget it would be the government’s singular focus “for the rest of the year”:

The answers are simple but take courage. A cowardly Albo cannot guarantee Japan jack shit.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.