New Zealanders continue to lose faith in Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Government, with the opposition National Party (36.0%) stretching its lead over Labour (29.5%):
Kiwi voters abandon Jacinda Ardern’s Labour.
Labour’s support plummeted 5.5% in September to its lowest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power nearly five years ago in October 2017.
Moreover, for the first time since Ardern came tom power, more women supported National (34%) than Labour (33%) in September.
If an election were held today, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour would likely face annihilation, with a potential National, ACT NZ and Maori coalition leading Labour/Greens by a whopping 8 percentage points:
Labour staring down massive election loss.
New Zealand’s government confidence index also remains sick, down a whopping 39 points from a year ago in September 2021:
Confidence in Labour Government collapses.
In September an equal record low of only 37.5% (unchanged) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (down 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The loss of support in Ardern’s Labour is understandable given Kiwis are facing a cost-of-living crisis amid soaring inflation and mortgage repayments, at the same time as their housing values have plummeted by around 10% nationally.
New Zealand is one nation that is even more property obsessed than Australia and has an even higher share of wealth tied up in housing. Therefore, when house prices plunge, it makes Kiwis angry.
There is also growing concern that New Zealand will follow other nations into recession next year on the back of aggressive interest rate tightening by the Reserve Bank.
Indeed, it is likely the housing market and economy will bottom out mid next year just in time for the election. This will make winning a third term increasingly difficult.
The monetary actions of the Reserve Bank are now a key determinant of Jacinda Ardern’s reelection prospects. If the Reserve Bank continues to tighten, then Ardern faces electoral annihilation.
