Democrats firm into mid-terms

Tuesday, 13 September 2022

It appears a combination of relentless Trump impeachment and lower petrol prices is lifting Democrat prospects into the mid-terms. Goldman has more.

The midterm election outcome looks like a closer call. In the House, generic polling, special election results, and fundraising measures suggest Democrats are in a better position than a few months ago.

However, other indicators suggest Republicans are still more likely to win the House majority. The thin Democratic margin sets a very low bar for Republicans to win the House majority, and Republicans look likely to benefit from voter enthusiasm and various structural advantages.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.