Chinese property crash gets worse

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Barclays with the report. More downgrades to come.


GDP growth forecasts reduced to 2.6% for 2022 and 4.5% for 2023

China’s growth momentum has weakened since July, when we lowered our full-year forecast to 3.1% to reflect the weak Q2 GDP print. Specifically, we note three major developments have ledus to further downgrade to our already cautious H2 outlook that had assumed contracting
property investment ( -3 to -5% y/y) and a subdued services recovery (3.5%) amid rolling lockdowns:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.