Blind RBA will be guided by backward-looking data

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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor, Phil Lowe, gave a speech on Thursday in which he confirmed that further rate hikes are coming, which will be guided by backward looking data [my emphasis]:

The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be required over the months ahead. The Board is not on a pre-set path, especially given the uncertainties that I have spoken about. We are conscious that there are lags in the operation of monetary policy and that interest rates have increased very quickly. And we recognise that, all else equal, the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises. But how high interest rates need to go and how quickly we get there will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook for inflation and the labour market.

Interestingly, Lowe’s speech also mentioned that Australia’s wage pressures remain subdued, despite the tight labour market:

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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