Albo’s cowards lock-in immense energy shock

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Here is your new gas supply agreement with the Evil Gas Cartel:

And from Annex C on pricing guidelines:

So, it is clear that both the Agreement and Code of Conduct use the JKM export netback price as the baseline for “competitive” offers in the local market.

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Here are JKM futures:

And converted into AUD:

Today’s east coast gas price is $23Gj and the Albo’s cowards just made it entirely acceptable for the Evil Gas Cartel to make any offer to local consumers of gas up to roughly $80Gj.

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That price will deliver an electricity price of roughly 600MW/h. It will constitute a gas price shock of 1000% and an electricity price shock of 1200% versus pre-Ukraine prices.

This will lift the CPI by 13% over one year and more like 20% over two with spillovers.

I have absolutely no idea how hard the Evil Gas Cartel will push this but Albo’s cowards have just given them carte blanche to do so.

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I hope the good minister got the promise of a decent sinecure post-politics.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.