I suspect that Chinese trade is also inflated by inflation. As it disappears, the trade surplus will collapse. Pantheon with the note.
External Headwinds Build for China, and the Renminbi will Suffer
China’s current account surplus fell in Q2, despite fresh records in the balance of trade. Zero-Covid continues to play a supportive role for China’s external accounts, compressing import demand and minimising the services deficit through its chilling effects on foreign travel. The rolling four quarter current account balance is still climbing, but we think Q2 should represent a high-water mark for the trade balance, with global export demand on the wane, and import demand compression nearing its limit. Further falls in the current account balance lie ahead, and support for the currency is weakening.
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