Citi using polling models.
This week, we restart our standard practice of presenting and commenting on events, polling averages, market-implied probabilities, and model-based probabilities related to November 8, 2022 midterm elections. There are well-known drawbacks to these various indicators, but markets will follow them as a real-time summary of expectations for election outcomes.
Republicans remain very likely to gain control of the House ofRepresentatives.The electoral map and historical advantage in midterms for the party not in the White House have consistently pointed to this as the likely 2022outcome since the 2020 election. The drop in President Biden’s approval rating –which largely transpired last summer – also points toward Republicans doing well in House races. Recent polling data and special election outcomes (see below) have reduced somewhat expectations for the Republican margin of victory, but not changed the likely Republican control outcome.
