Advertisement
Michael Hartnett at BofA continues his terrific work. I agree with most of this in cyclical terms but still think that Hartnett underestimates the long-term deflationary consequences for commodities of a structurally weak China as CNY deflates. I’m not convinced fiscal policy is back for good, either, after this inflation burst.
MB Fund remains underweight stocks, buying the bond dips and overweight cash.
Jackson Hole: “hawkish” Fed is bullish, “dovish” Fed is bearish; rates too low, QT too light, inflation unlikely to fall below 4% by ‘24 thus Fed funds likely to exceed 4% by ‘24;soonerFed plays role of “the courageous lion”, better for macro, better for markets.
Advertisement
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Advertisement