Via Charlie McElligott at Nomura:
If “data dependency” is the new “forward guidance,” then what a week ahead for markets: besides the obligatory “biggest CPI print ever,” we get PPI, Initial Claims, Empire Fed, NAHB and U Mich Sentiment & Infl Expectation so
CPI House View: We expect a deceleration for headline inflation to 0.1% MoM (or 8.6% YoY) from 1.3% in June, largely due to lower gas prices. Core should modestly slow to 0.5% MoM, downfrom 0.7%, but rent-related components likely remained strong, and core goods inflation is likely to be softer