Soft Aussie wage growth tempers RBA rate hikes

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Australian wage growth missed economists’ expectations in the June quarter of 2022, according to new data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Australian wage growth

Australian wage growth remains weak.

Total wages grew by only 0.72% in the June quarter, missing analyst’s expectations of 0.8% growth. Private sector wages grew by 0.72% over the quarter, whereas public sector wages grew by 0.56%.

Overall wages grew by 2.63% over the year, up significantly from the all-time low of 1.36% recorded in the year to September 2020. But it too missed analysts expectations of 2.7% annual growth.

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The private sector recorded wage growth of 2.65% in the year to June, whereas the public service recorded 2.43% wage growth:

Wage growth by sector

Public sector wage growth lagging.

Clearly, the softer than expected wage growth shatters the case for the RBA to continue hiking rates aggressively.

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There is no wage-price spiral in Australia, despite the nation’s low unemployment rate. And with the Albanese Government about to open the immigration flood gates, wage growth will likely fail to launch.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.