No FOMO! Shorts pile into Australian dollar

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DXY was up Friday night:

AUD is on a rampage:

Oil eased:

Metals too:

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The AUD miners are not rebounding much:

EM stocks popped:

Junk is food for bulls:

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But the Treasury curve is still deeply inverted:

As stocks price Nirvana:

Contrary to wider bullishness and FOMO, markets are getting more short AUD:

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While stock shorts are blasted:

There is scope here for a higher AUD given positioning in the short term given it so out of step with broader risk flows.

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That said, it may also provide some insight into why US assets are flying despite still very high inflation. The Chinese economy is not storming back so that can provide ongoing disinflation to the US as the goods bull whip effect inverts and would weigh on AUD positioning despite border “risk on”.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.