Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stocks are having a poor session given the rising tensions in China and a pause overnight from more hawkish Fed talk, with Chinese stocks continuing their selling while the RBA meeting went and gone with no change in local stocks. The Australian dollar slumped on the 50bps rise by the RBA, after failing to push through the 70 level last week, pricing in the full hike. Meanwhile oil prices are slipping below key support levels, with Brent crude now below the $100USD per barrel level, while gold has continued its previous weekly highs with another push higher, currently at the $1780USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets are selling off fast on renewed Taiwan tensions with the Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3207 points while the Hang Seng Index is now below the 20000 point barrier, having sold off more than 2% to be at 19707 points. Japanese stock markets are also losing ground, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.4% to 27594 points as the USDJPY pair drops below the 131 level again having lost a stunning 700 pips in less than 2 weeks:

Australian stocks slid in with a scratch session despite the RBA rate rise with the ASX200 closing 0.1% higher to almost push through the 7000 point level, closing at 6998 points. The Australian dollar flopped on the decision after failing to punch through the 70 handle in its recent trend, now below the lower trend channel line at the mid 69s as the rate rise was all priced in:

Eurostoxx and US futures are holding on to their start of week positions following the mild falls overnight with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price action pausing here above the 4100 point level as the relief rally takes a breather:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet with a few sub tier Fed speeches to keep an ear out for.

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  1. Quantitative FleecingMEMBER

    Here’s an anecdote for you all. Overheard a phone conversation of a coworker bragging about how he’s sold his property the same way everyone was saying that they bought last year.

    Here comes the psychological paradigm shift – Aussie housing always goes up… except when it does down

  2. Any Brisbane shut ins frequent the Inala Civic shopping centre?

    Stopped off there this arvo and I finally found where Qld hides all the jimmies lol, real good fruit and veg and meat though.

    I think there’s 5 separate butchers in the small complex catering to each ethnic/religious group. All that meams to me is the best selection of meat I’ve seen in ages. Loaded up on goat and quail but will be going back for all the different pork cuts at one of the Asian butchers, you never see these cuts at the duopoly!!!

  3. Arthur's Poodle

    Massive movement in the Hedonic Jetski Index today.

    The RBA’s INSANE record rate rise has pushed the index into unseen territory, indicating weakness 😱 in the economy, and a shift in general sentiment.

    Currently: 307

    Up a massive 7 points from lunchtime! And a crazy 17 points from the indexes inception, at the pub on Friday.

  4. @Chris becker:
    – The USD/Yen was heavily overbought. so, I am NOT surprised to see the USD/Yen go the other way.
    – Currently I am short the USD and long the Yen.

  5. haroldusMEMBER

    I do feel a bit sorry for Albo, the RBA had totally clenched up and were holding the rate rises in, so reluctant to let that tiny one go just before the election.

    Then when Albo gets in they just take enormous repeated rise dumps on him and Dim.

    • Three nuns are walking down the road when a serial flasher jumps out of the bushes and exposes himself. Two of the nuns fainted and the third had a stroke.

  6. Looks like a long night ahead…..opposite Taiwan on the mainland public flights have been stopped, public fuel sales have stopped and an appeal has gone out for blood donors.

  7. “The problem is that the private sector cannot be the source of its own net financial surplus.”

    Interest adds to the financial sector surplus at the expense of the other sectors.

    Looks out window …. cackle ….

  8. The Traveling Wilbur

    Can you imagine how savvy we’d all be if we’d all only gone long toilet paper futures?

    At least, thanks to COVID and now inflation, my TP mountain is rocketing in value.

  9. Only 24 comments so far compared to north of 151 on the article about the RBA raising the OCR by 0.5%. Man, got my money’s worth in my yearly subscription in that alone!! So, my investment outlook in the next 1 – 2 years from what I read should be baked beans, guns and cash / gold…..

    • Silly silly woman. Belongs in a nursing home. Why is she busy trying to pad her bank account out at her age? She might be dead tomorrow… So what for? How many Ferraris will she need? She probably couldn’t even drive a Mazda MX5 to its full potential.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        The daily blood transfusions Pelosi Receives of “Orphaned” babies blood has her more capable than you might think Gav.
        Same goes for Biden,…though I am a bit worried he won’t be able to remember the Launch codes when the time comes.

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