Immigration rebound slaughters Aussie renters

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SQM research has released rental vacancies data for the month of July, with vacancies nationally remaining at a record low 1.0% and every capital city market zipped tight:

SQM rental vacancy rates

Rental vacancy rates zipped tight.

The next chart shows the time series across the major capitals, with vacancy rates plunging over the pandemic:

Rental vacancy rates across capitals

Rental vacancy rates collapse across the capitals.

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And the next chart, published in The AFR, shows how the number of rental vacancies have almost halved since the beginning of the pandemic:

Rental listings

Rental listings halve.

Commenting on the results, SQM Research managing director, Louis Christopher, noted that the reopening of Australia’s international border to immigration is tightening the rental market. And the situation will worsen as immigration ramps-up:

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“Rental listings in Sydney and Melbourne are continuing to fall at a time when demand is soaring due to increased migration and local demand, so we’re likely to see vacancies fall further”…

“The rental market by and large remains very tight. We will wait to see if the increased immigration demand creates pressure elsewhere”…

“While there has been a steady stream of dwelling completions, household formation has also been expanding at a quicker rate than the number of dwellings completed in these cities”…

“On top of that, more landlords are opting to lease their property via websites such as Airbnb and Stayz. And that has made the pool of long-term leasing, which is what we measure these vacancy rates, reduce over time”…

The worst thing is that net permanent and long-term arrivals – a proxy for net overseas migration – was only 66,000 in the year to June:

Australian net immigration

Net immigration currently still low.

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Worryingly, the Albanese Government confirmed over the weekend that it would use next month’s Jobs & Skills Summit as a trojan horse to ramp-up immigration to record levels.

Labor flagged that it would increase the non-humanitarian permanent migrant intake to 200,000 in the October federal budget, up from its current level of 160,000.

If Labor follows through, it would represent the largest permanent migration program in the nation’s history, surpassing the previous high 190,000 non-humanitarian permanent migrant intake.

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The Albanese Government has also vowed to speed up processing of 570,000 temporary visa applications that are currently awaiting approval.

Therefore, Australia next year faces its largest ever intake of net overseas migration.

The logical outcome is that rental vacancies will shrink, rents will soar, and homelessness will rise as tenants compete like the Hunger Games for housing.

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Labor’s ‘Big Australia’ immigration fetish threatens to slaughter Australian renters.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.