Goldman just can’t find the turnaround it is so hoping for. It is now cutting its outlook but not enough! Does anybody remember its call to go long developer junk bonds in November last year?
China Real Estate: Week 34 Wrap – Property sales extended recovery wow in primary but declined in secondary: Mortgage boycott updates: the latest number of cities with reported mortgage boycott incidents rose to 103 with 347 developer project being impacted, vs. 100 cities and 338 projects in the prior week. New homes sales volumes rose 8% wow, down 30% yoy with tier-2 and Central & Western outperforming. Secondary transactions were -5% wow and -24% yoy, with negative price appreciation expectations from both agents and home sellers. The inventory balance was largely flat wow and down 3.3% from end-21, with inventory months at21.4 (vs. average 20.1 in July 2022). The GSPC tracker currently indicates a c.20% yoy decline in completions for MTD Aug 2022 (vs. c.20% yoy decline in July) and a teen-level decline YTD yoy.
China policy easing towards the property sector has increased in recent weeks.
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