Via China’s NBS. The reopening boom is already over with new orders cooked across the spectrum.
In July , the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ( PMI ) was 49.0% , a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the critical point, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry declined.
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In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and medium-sized enterprises were 49.8% and 48.5% , respectively, down 0.4 and 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and dropped below the threshold; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.9% , down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, still below the critical point.
In terms of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI , the supplier delivery time index is higher than the critical point, and the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index and employee index are all lower than the critical point.
The production index was 49.8 percent , a decrease of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below the threshold, indicating that manufacturing production activities have slowed down.
The new orders index was 48.5 percent , a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing market demand has declined.
Table 1 China’s manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted)
|Production||new order||raw materials
|July 2021 _ _||50.4||51.0||50.9||47.7||49.6||48.9|
|August 2021 _ _||50.1||50.9||49.6||47.7||49.6||48.0|
|September 2021 _ _||49.6||49.5||49.3||48.2||49.0||48.1|
|October 2021 _ _||49.2||48.4||48.8||47.0||48.8||46.7|
|November 2021 _ _||50.1||52.0||49.4||47.7||48.9||48.2|
|December 2021 _ _||50.3||51.4||49.7||49.2||49.1||48.3|
|January 2022 _ _||50.1||50.9||49.3||49.1||48.9||47.6|
|February 2022 _ _||50.2||50.4||50.7||48.1||49.2||48.2|
|March 2022 _ _||49.5||49.5||48.8||47.3||48.6||46.5|
|April 2022 _ _||47.4||44.4||42.6||46.5||47.2||37.2|
|May 2022 _ _||49.6||49.7||48.2||47.9||47.6||44.1|
|June 2022 _ _||50.2||52.8||50.4||48.1||48.7||51.3|
|July 2022 _ _||49.0||49.8||48.5||47.9||48.6||50.1|
Table 2 Other related indicators of China’s manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)
|import||Purchase quantity||Purchase price of main raw materials||factory
|Production and business activity expectations|
|July 2021 _ _||47.7||49.4||50.8||62.9||53.8||47.6||46.1||57.8|
|August 2021 _ _||46.7||48.3||50.3||61.3||53.4||47.7||45.9||57.5|
|September 2021 _ _||46.2||46.8||49.7||63.5||56.4||47.2||45.6||56.4|
|October 2021 _ _||46.6||47.5||48.9||72.1||61.1||46.3||45.0||53.6|
|November 2021 _ _||48.5||48.1||50.2||52.9||48.9||47.9||45.7||53.8|
|December 2021 _ _||48.1||48.2||50.8||48.1||45.5||48.5||45.6||54.3|
|January 2022 _ _||48.4||47.2||50.2||56.4||50.9||48.0||45.8||57.5|
|February 2022 _ _||49.0||48.6||50.9||60.0||54.1||47.3||45.2||58.7|
|March 2022 _ _||47.2||46.9||48.7||66.1||56.7||48.9||46.1||55.7|
|April 2022 _ _||41.6||42.9||43.5||64.2||54.4||50.3||46.0||53.3|
|May 2022 _ _||46.2||45.1||48.4||55.8||49.5||49.3||45.0||53.9|
|June 2022 _ _||49.5||49.2||51.1||52.0||46.3||48.6||44.2||55.2|
|July 2022 _ _||47.4||46.9||48.9||40.4||40.1||48.0||42.6||52.0|
2. Operation of China’s non-manufacturing PMI
In July , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.8% , a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, still in the expansion range, and the non-manufacturing industry recovered for two consecutive months.
In view of different industries, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.2 percent , an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry business activity index was 52.8 percent , down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, ecological protection and public facilities management, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries are in the high prosperity range of more than 55.0% ; capital market services , insurance, real estate, leasing and business services and other industries business activity index is below the threshold.
The new orders index was 49.7% , a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month and fell below the threshold, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demand has slowed down. In view of different industries, the new orders index of the construction industry was 51.1% , an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index of the service industry was 49.5% , a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous month.