Broken NAB business survey forecasts wages explosion

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Last year when we all enjoyed a brief period of relative RBA sanity, it junked its business liaison program and said it would not tighten policy until it saw actual strong wage gains in hard data.

As we know, that regime collapsed in a month or two as the RBA was once again freaked out by business liason. Doubtless, the RBA is being gamed given the evidence of actual wage growth is still very weak.

I suspect there is no better example of this gaming than what appears to have overtaken the formerly reliable NAB business survey. Even since the post-GFC period, the survey has increasingly dislocated from the real economy, particularly so on wages.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.