Australia’s rental crisis screams Code Red

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CoreLogic has released rental listings data, which shows that the number of properties listed for rent across the combined capital cities has plummeted to just 80,000 – around 50,000 (40%) less than were available for rent in July 2018 and July 2021:

Number of homes listed for rent

Capital city rental listings have collapsed.

In turn, the rental vacancy rate has collapsed to just 1.3% across the combined capital cities and 1.0% across the combined regions. This has driven rental growth to its highest level in decades: 9.1% across the combined capital cities and 10.8% across the combined regions:

Rental growth

Rents surge alongside record tight vacancies.

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The outlook for Australia’s rental market is poor. Residential construction rates are tipped to plunge next year as the pipeline from the HomeBuilder stimulus is finally worked-off. Dwelling approvals have already fallen sharply, which should continue amid rising interest rates and the various cost pressures afflicting the construction industry:

Australian dwelling approvals

Australian dwelling approvals are falling, signaling tighter housing supply.

At the same time, the Albanese Government is expected to ramp-up immigration to its highest ever level following next month’s Jobs & Skills Summit, with the permanent non-humanitarian migrant intake expected to be lifted to 200,000 for the first ever time.

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The obvious question needs to be asked: with Australia’s rental market already experiencing record tightness and rents soaring at near double-digit rates, where will the hundreds of thousands of migrants entering Australia every year live?

The logical outcome from the Albanese Government’s immigration influx will be more shrinking of rental vacancies, higher rents, and increased homelessness as tenants compete like the Hunger Games for housing.

Labor’s ‘Big Australia’ immigration fetish is flashing ‘code red’ for Australia’s rental market.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.