Oil continues sliding and is at the lowest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine. We stick to our non consensus view on oil outlined in late June in our thematic email “Oil – last man standing?” (premium subs only, sign up here). Note black gold is now “well” below the 200 day moving average. We saw it dip below the longer term moving average late last year, but back then the world wasn’t dealing with a looming recession…First real support is the longer term trend line a few bucks lower.
Remember when oil was the only asset refusing to sell off? Things have changed drastically since the local equities low. SPX only up, oil only down. Is oil trying to tell us something about the economy, or?
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.