Widowmaker be damned. Aussie bank bubble to pop

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This mispricing is one for the ages. As Australia heads for inflation blowoff on the back of shocking political mismanagement around energy, forcing the RBA to hike rates higher than the underlying economic structure can cope with, house prices are crashing with much worse ahead.

In the firing line of this is Aussie banks who will be forced to write down assets, write up loan losses, cut profits and dividends in the year ahead.

Yet, the big five are trading like none of this is coming. All are far above previous cyclical lows for multiples with CBA outrageous:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.