Vendors rush to sell before Aussie house prices plunge

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According to CoreLogic’s daily index, dwelling values are now falling nationally, driven by sharp falls across Sydney and Melbourne:

Quarterly dwelling value growth

The Great Housing Bear Market has begun.

Not surprisingly, the prospect of further sharp price falls amid rising mortgage rates is prompting vendors to ‘rush to market’ in a bid to avoid further losses.

The PropTrack Listings Report for June 2022 showed that it was the busiest to winter since 2011, with new listings nationally up 8.5% year-on-year:

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New property listings

New listings have risen across both capital cities (red) and regional areas (purple).

New listings were higher across every market except regional Northern Territory:

New property listings by state

Listings up across almost every market.

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Commenting on the result, PropTrack noted that “measures of buyer demand have declined” and “buyers have had more properties to choose from”. In particular, the “wave of new supply coming to market over the first half of the year, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, has lifted the stock available on market and eased competitive conditions”. In turn, “that will place greater downward pressure on prices”.

CoreLogic’s latest sales data supports this view, showing that “initial sales estimates over the June quarter were 15.9% lower than the same quarter of the previous year”:

Property sales volumes

Buyer demand is shrinking as listings rise.

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Vendors would be wise to sell before interest rates increase further and ‘panic selling’ engulfs the entire housing market.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.