Tens of thousands ditch Victoria for Queensland

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Fairfax has published interesting data showing the rapid turnaround in domestic migration flows to/from Victoria over the pandemic, with the state moving from migrant magnet to repellant.

Of the nearly 32,000 people that left Victoria, around 23,000 moved north to Queensland:

Through the two years of COVID-19, Victoria lost a net 31,700 people to other parts of the country. In 2018 and 2019, it had gained 23,858 residents as people moved to the state…

Population change over pandemic

Through the final six months of 2021, Victoria lost 335 people a day to other parts of the country compared with 275 who moved in. More than 60,000 people left Victoria, the biggest outflow over a six-month history in records dating back to 1981.

Queensland was the go-to state for Victorians, with a net 23,299 moving north through 2020 and 2021. Three-quarters of those moved last year.

In fact, Queensland received a record net 80,056 interstate migrants between 2020 and 2021, roughly double the number received in 2018 and 2019.

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Queensland’s massive population growth helps to explain Brisbane’s massive house price growth, which was the strongest in the nation over the pandemic:

Annual house price growth

Brisbane dwelling values boomed the most over the pandemic.

The extra demand has also caused extreme rental growth across Queensland, which was the strongest in the nation in the 2021-22 financial year:

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Annual rental growth

Queensland rental growth the strongest in the nation.

However, with mortgage rates now rising, Queensland’s housing market is also beginning to wane. Albeit it remains far less exposed than either Sydney and Melbourne.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.