Sydney’s house price correction turns nasty

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CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which measures value changes across the five main Australian capital cities, declined another 0.07% in the week ended 7 July:

Weekly house price change

Eighth consecutive weekly house price fall.

Once again, Sydney led the price decline with values falling 0.24% over the week. Melbourne’s dwelling values also fell (-0.11%), whereas the other major capitals recorded price rises:

Weekly Australian house price changes

Sydney and Melbourne drag house prices lower.

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Over the past quarter, dwelling values across the five major capitals have fallen 1.1%, with Sydney (-3.0%) and Melbourne (-1.9%) driving the losses. By contrast, solid to strong growth has been recorded across the other main capitals:

Quarterly house price change

Quarterly price falls across Sydney and Melbourne.

The next chart shows that Sydney’s dwelling values have been in freefall since the Reserve Bank commenced its rate tightening cycle in early May 2022:

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Sydney house prices

Sydney house prices in freefall.

Since peaking in mid-February 2022, Sydney’s dwelling values have fallen 3.4%, whereas Melbourne’s dwelling values have fallen 2.1%.

The way it is heading, Sydney will record double-digit price falls in 2022, with Melbourne also staring at solid declines.

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More losses will come next year if the Reserve Bank continues to hike rates aggressively. It is also a matter of time before price falls spread to the smaller markets.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.