Real estate agents: Sell now before “buyer’s paradise” arrives

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A week ago, “Australasia’s #1 real estate coach and trainer”, Tom Panos exploded across the media after he took to YouTube and Twitter claiming he was “stressed” after having “almost no buyers” at his Sydney auctions.

After I transcribed Panos’ comments on MB, a series of copycat articles proliferated across the mainstream media, elevating Panos as a real estate celebrity.

I began following Panos on social media and YouTube because I like his straight talking and no BS approach, which is refreshing in an industry chock full of spruikers.

Indeed, in a video posted last week, Panos described being criticised by other agents for ‘talking down the market’.

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Later in the video he warned that “fear of missing out” (FOMO) has been replaced by “fear of overpaying” (FOOP), and called for agents to adjust to the new reality:

“One of the things that the real estate agents are going to have to cope with in this market… is FOMO has been replaced by FOOP. Fear of missing out has been replaced by fear of overpaying”.

“So one of the things that agents are facing now is that when they are dealing with a buyer, the buyer is thinking “hey listen, if I buy this today for $1 million, is there a possibility that after two or three interest rate rises, this is going to be worth $900,000? Am I overpaying”? And this is the same buyer that also knows that instead of paying $1.1 million, they are now paying $1 million. They realise they are buying it at a discount than three or four months ago”.

“But nevertheless, I think it just goes to show how much power pain avoidance has got when buyers are scared to buy because they are worried the asset is going to drop”.

In Saturday’s market update, Pano urged vendors to sell now before interest rates rise further, the spring selling season sends listings surging, and the market becomes a “buyers paradise”:

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“I’m urging every vendor, if you are thinking of selling come onto the market sooner rather than later. You are risking listing your property in Spring. There’s going to be probably two to three times the stock than there is now. You’re not only going to be competing against interest rate rises… then you are going to have all this stock on the market in September, October and November. It is going to be a ‘buyers paradise’. It’s going to be like buyers walking into a lollipop shop and they won’t be able to work out what to buy”.

“And that’s pressure. Because when there’s a lot of properties on the market, who suffers? Vendors because they’ve got to reduce their property price because they have got to make it more attractive than their competitors”.

Tom Panos has given sound advice. Home values have fallen sharply since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s initial 0.25% rate hike in May, led by Sydney and Melbourne:

Australian dwelling values

Dwelling values are falling fast, led by Sydney and Melbourne.

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With further aggressive interest rate hikes likely over coming months, there is only one way for property prices to go: down.

Therefore, waiting to sell is certain to achieve a lower sale price, especially if the traditional spring selling season kicks off in earnest and listings swell.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.