Power shock explodes. AEMO and Albo missing, presumed dead

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If an electricity market collapses but there is nobody there to see it, did it happen?

That is the philosophical quandary facing Australians today as their power grid goes into total meltdown while nobody reports on it.

The National Electricity Market (NEM) yesterday printed prices roughly 1300% higher than five months ago:

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The last time we saw prices like this, the regulator, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), suspended all bids and capped prices at $300MWh. Yet here we are above double that and that sound you can hear is nothing but crickets…

There is no media reporting of it, either. Nor have Albo’s cowards mentioned it. It’s as if there’s been some mighty explosion as they all toured the facility for a photo-op and they are missing, presumed dead.

I don’t even know what to say. It’s not like energy supply is irrelevant. As noted many times, if today’s prices persist, and they will without policy correction, then everybody’s utility bills are going to triple. CPI will lift an extra 6-10% over the next year or more, and the Australian economy will be destroyed by a 7% cash rate.

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That’s all. Nothing to see here. All good.

So, what are the various players doing? Albo’s bizarroworld cowards are busy fixing 2050:

Bob Brown has claimed Kevin Rudd’s reluctance to negotiate with the Greens was the real reason an emissions trading scheme did not pass parliament in 2009, and is accusing Anthony Albanese of making the same mistake.

The Greens founder defended his decision to veto the passage of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme as Adam Bandt and independent MPs on Thursday demanded changes to the Prime Minister’s climate change bill after receiving briefings from the office of Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

The export cartels that are driving the power crisis by imposing war-profiteering gas and coal prices on the local market are printing money and running wild:

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Australian LNG exports have broken fresh records in volumes and value amid super-keen demand for non-Russian gas, with Japan overtaking lockdown-hit China to regain the No.1 ranking as the biggest customer.

Shipments were the highest in June on a monthly basis, and exports also hit a record for the 2022 financial year, reaching 82.6 million tonnes, according to consultancy EnergyQuest.

It estimated export revenue for the year at $70.18 billion, easily more than double the $30.48 billion recorded in FY 2020.

…In news that looks set to rub salt into the wounds of east coast manufacturers, Australia exported four spot cargoes of LNG last month, including two from the east coast, according to EnergyQuest.

…EnergyQuest said Origin Energy’s Australia Pacific LNG venture and Santos’ GLNG venture shipped one spot cargo from Gladstone in June. It said the GLNG cargo was shipped by Malaysia’s Petronas, a partner in the project, at a price of $US22 per million British thermal units, including freight.

That’s right, folks. The gas cartel is shipping extra cargoes offshore at steep discounts to the Australian price.

The coal cartel is celebrating because China is about to leave us even shorter of that fuel as well (recalling that it is already takes 71% of east coast gas volumes):

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Shares in ASX-listed coal producers surged on Thursday amid rising expectations that Chinese authorities will lift an unofficial ban on Australian coal exports.

While no official confirmation was available on Thursday, sources in the Chinese steel sector told The Australian that the speculation should be taken seriously, given growing pressure on Beijing from heavy industry that is suffering badly from high commodity prices in the absence of competition from Australian mines.

For years, Australia’s political economy has been pushed out of shape by corruption, culture wars, and a failing media. Now it has finally snapped as the fundamental building block of our civilisation – energy – is stolen from under our feet by an existential enemy.

Yet, there is nobody left with the wit or gumption to see it.

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This is some form of institutional insanity.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.